STORM FORECAST
VALID Thu 23 Mar 06:00 - Fri 24 Mar 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 23 Mar 06:41 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

Northern Europe is affected by intense arctic trough over Scandinavia ... and stable cold airmass has spread over northern, and central Europe. The southern branch of the polar jet stream affects the Mediterranean. A strong trough over central Mediterranean propagates eastward during the period ... while another trough follows over Iberian Peninsula. At lower levels ... very warm airmass originating from Africa is advected into eastern Mediterranean, Turkey, and Black Sea region ahead of the approaching trough. A cold front is expected to reach Turkey at noon ... and unstable maritime airmass spreads into Turkey during the afternoon.

DISCUSSION

...Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea region...
Strong upper trough propagates eastward during the period ... and very strong upper jet streak travels northeastward over central/eastern Mediterranean into Turkey ... Black Sea region. Strong DCVA is expected underneath the cyclonic flank of this upper jet streak. At lower levels ... warm airmass is advected into Turkey. This airmass will be stable due to relatively cold boundary layer over the Mediterranean Sea. During the day ... a weak cold front travels eastward over Greece and western Turkey. To the west of this frontal boundary ... maritime airmass will enter the region. This airmass is characterized by neutral lapse rates above the boundary layer and locally steep low-level lapse rates as indicated by latest soundings. Boundary layer moisture is quite poor. However ... it seems to be realistic that this airmass will be unstable over Turkey, Black Sea region, and Greece region. QG forcing is expected due to weak CAA and strong DCVA. Additionally, orographic lift should be possible over western Turkey. It is expected that showers and thunderstorms will form. Near the cold front ... strong vertical wind shear should be present. However ... it is not likely that thunderstorms will develop just next to the frontal boundary. As a consequence ... overlapping of thunderstorms and region with strong vertical (deep layer) wind shear will be small ... and current thinking is that this will inhibit well-developed organized convection. However ... given strong LLS over western Turkey and western Black Sea region ... a few severe events should be possible ... and an isolated tornado or hail/wind event is not ruled out.

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